OECD predicts worldwide property bubble burst

OECD predicts worldwide property bubble burst

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has issued a warning that global property prices could overheat and eventually drop.
The think tank was monitoring "vulnerabilities in asset markets" amid predictions of higher inflation and the possibility of diverging monetary policies next year.

OECD's chief economist Catherine Mann said that countries like Canada and Sweden are particular cases for concern with prices being"very high" and "not consistent with a stable real estate market".

The organisation also pointed out that the UK real estate market may be face price correction soon, with London's current property prices through the roof.

"We've already started to see some changes in real-estate prices in the UK," said Mann.

She added that falling house prices post the Brexit vote would be positive for the UK if the change is borne mainly by foreign investors.

"Interesting in terms of the implications for the UK economy is who bears the burden - who bears the adjustment cost. If it's a non-resident then lower house prices could actually be good for the UK," she told The Telegraph.

The OECD are not alone in making these predictions.

Research by Countrywide revealed that the number of homes sold in London for more than the asking price fell to 23% in November 2016 from 41.5% in January. Across the whole of the UK the decline was less steep from 29.8% in March to 23.1% in November.

Johnny Morris, head of research at Countrywide said: "We expect prices to fall next year as this slowdown works through the system. Generally the first thing to change will be the number of transactions, and then after the gap between what people will pay and how much people will accept opens up quickly and takes a while to close. Sales slow, and then there is a price adjustment."

Estate agent Haart released a report earlier this year showing that the economic shock of the Brexit vote led to a £30,000 discount on the average London property price.

The Times survey of leading economists at the end of December showed that 22 out of 39 economists predicted the stablisation or drop in London house prices in 2017.

Former member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee DeAnne Julius and chairman of Lombard Street Research Charles Dumas said house prices could fall by as much as 10%.

Source: Selftrade

 property market, economy

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